Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Narendra Modi effect

Official elevation of Modi came as a surprise. For a long time he has been the favourite punching bag for all. I hope that he will remain the bad boy, at least for the media. However Iam unnerved by the mellowed down media reporting for the last few days. I guess the media is surprised too.

Well even L K Advani is surprised. So rest of us mortals can be excused.

 Another poor soul who was  caught unawares is Nitishkumar. His alliance with BJP was making him invincible in Bihar.  He knew it but over played his hand on Modi.  Outcome is that he cannot deride Modi now and continue the alliance. Like Advani he will also loose credibility. There is a good possibility of third front proposition coming up and this will be the only alternative for Nitishkumar.

The next player is of course Congress. They were fully convinced that Rahul will lead this election. Now that strategy may  not be such a tempting one. In case the third front comes up then congress will become irrelevant even before the election. Fractured regional parties are their only hope and in case of a third front option available even NCP is likely to ditch congress.

The  UPA-2 is headed by a Roman catholic Italian born lady whose points men are all from either muslim or christian or other minority back ground. A discredited UPA on performance and corruption may become pariah to the voters in case of a third front formation and will lose the minority vote bank as well.
The UPA-2 was more of a south domination set up. It is clear that there is a clear polarisation against this southern hegemony which is manifested in the elevation of Modi. In spite of being a regional satrap and an OBC he has ascended to the national leadership of BJP shows the desperation of the cadre predominantly a northern congregation. Coalition dynamics has not deterred them from considering Modi underline this fact.
As now many acknowledge Modi will improve the tally of BJP  in spite of being seen as a polariser of minority votes.

Like in a chess game BJP is willing to sacrifice JD-U for a leadership change. This will work in post poll scenario to Advani's advantage too as he will then be a consensus choice.

Looking at the events as they unfold the feeling is unmistakeable. Narendra Modi is destiny's own child.


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